This game · 121 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Phoenix Mercury won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 21 points on 7-for-13 (54%), headlined by 3-for-3 in the paint — 3.0 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Phoenix Mercury created 6.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Phoenix Mercury built a +4.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury (24% good looks) and Connecticut Sun (14% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 40% of Connecticut's attempts came from the paint vs 30% of Phoenix's; Connecticut tilted here more (40% vs 30%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 40% of Connecticut's attempts came from the paint vs 30% of Phoenix's; Connecticut tilted here more (40% vs 30%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 21.0 pts
Phoenix Mercury won the turnover battle by 7 (21 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Rim — 80% from Rim (4/5) vs. a 56% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →