TSRBeta
Friday, August 14, 2026 · Final

This game · 146 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

87—98
Dallas Wings
DAL
Wings
IND
Fever
Indiana Fever

Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.

Tyasha Harris

led the way with 15 points on 5-for-5 (100%), headlined by 5-for-5 from above the break — 10.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Dallas Wings created 1.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 16.0 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q2 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +8.4 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+1.0↓ Below avg
-1.0↓ Below avg
Shot making
-2.9↓ Below avg
+16.0↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.00
0.96

Shot diet

Indiana Fever attacked the rim more — 27% of attempts in the restricted area vs 17% for Dallas Wings.

Paige Bueckers

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/7 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 17% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 27% of Indiana's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (27% vs 17%).

DAL
17%8/12 · 67% FG
IND
27%10/20 · 50% FG
3/3 2/2
Paint
DAL
19%6/14 · 43% FG
IND
27%13/20 · 65% FG
3/7 4/4
Corner 3
DAL
14%4/10 · 40% FG
IND
3%0/2 · 0% FG
2/2 0/1
Short mid
DAL
13%6/9 · 67% FG
IND
7%4/5 · 80% FG
5/7 1/1
Long mid
DAL
11%4/8 · 50% FG
IND
7%3/5 · 60% FG
4/7 2/3
Above break
DAL
26%3/19 · 16% FG
IND
30%9/22 · 41% FG
2/4 5/5

Possession context

IND ran more early offense in this game.

Indiana Fever got 38% of FGA in transition (0.93 expected pts/att) vs 15% for Dallas Wings (1.01 expected pts/att).

DALIND
Transition share15%38%
Second-chance share11%8%
After-steal share3%1%
Half-court expected pts/att1.000.97
Transition expected pts/att1.010.93

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Indiana Fever won by 11.9 pts — SQ edge said DAL.

Dallas Wings got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 11.9 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

DALINDEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots71.971.0DAL
Finishing vs expected-2.9+16.0IND

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1811DAL
Turnovers129IND
Offensive rebounds119DAL

Process value (pts)

Process total85.597.4IND
↳ Looks + finishing69.087.0-18.0
↳ Free throws18.011.0+7.0
↳ Turnover cost-13.0-10.0-3.0
↳ Second chance11.59.4+2.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
9/21
FG%
43%
Pts
23
Vs expected
-2.3
C&S
0/3
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightMitchell struggled most from Above — 1/6 against a 34% baseline.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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