This game · 130 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 25 points on 11-for-15 (73%), headlined by 4-for-5 from above the break — 10.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Atlanta Dream created 5.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 8.6 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +7.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Indiana Fever (32% good looks) and Atlanta Dream (39% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
found the right spots — 4 attempts at the rim — but couldn't convert, going 1/4.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of Indiana's; Indiana tilted here more (37% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of Indiana's; Indiana tilted here more (37% vs 24%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 13.9 pts — SQ edge said ATL.
Atlanta Dream got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 13.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightClark struggled most from Rim — 1/4 against a 58% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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