TSRBeta
Thursday, September 17, 2026 · Final

This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

59—103
Connecticut Sun
CONN
Sun
ATL
Dream
Atlanta Dream

Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.

Angel Reese

led the way with 30 points on 11-for-14 (79%), headlined by 9-for-9 at the rim — 8.5 more than expected overall with 71% of attempts from the rim or corner.

  1. Atlanta Dream created 18.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Atlanta Dream outperformed expected value by 5.3 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +7.7 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-18.1↑ Above avg
+18.1↑ Above avg
Shot making
-14.6↑ Above avg
+5.3↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
0.98
1.07

Shot diet

Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 50% rim or corner looks vs 34% for Connecticut Sun.

Angel Reese

carried the offense at the rim — 9/9 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 41% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (41% vs 26%).

CONN
26%6/17 · 35% FG
ATL
41%24/31 · 77% FG
2/5 9/9
Paint
CONN
8%3/5 · 60% FG
ATL
11%4/8 · 50% FG
0/2 1/2
Corner 3
CONN
8%1/5 · 20% FG
ATL
9%2/7 · 29% FG
1/2 1/2
Short mid
CONN
18%6/12 · 50% FG
ATL
5%0/4 · 0% FG
2/3 0/2
Long mid
CONN
17%5/11 · 45% FG
ATL
4%2/3 · 67% FG
1/4 0/1
Above break
CONN
23%2/15 · 13% FG
ATL
30%7/23 · 30% FG
2/3 2/3

Possession context

ATL ran more early offense in this game.

Atlanta Dream got 33% of FGA in transition (1.03 expected pts/att) vs 17% for Connecticut Sun (0.96 expected pts/att).

CONNATL
Transition share17%33%
Second-chance share6%12%
After-steal share2%5%
Half-court expected pts/att0.971.10
Transition expected pts/att0.961.03

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Atlanta Dream won by 68.4 pts

Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 10 (14 total TO).

Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.

CONNATLEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots63.681.7ATL
Finishing vs expected-14.6+5.3ATL

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1016ATL
Turnovers144ATL
Offensive rebounds210ATL

Process value (pts)

Process total43.1111.5ATL
↳ Looks + finishing49.087.0-38.0
↳ Free throws10.016.0-6.0
↳ Turnover cost-18.0-2.0-16.0
↳ Second chance2.110.5-8.4

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
3/14
FG%
21%
Pts
10
Vs expected
-7.5
C&S
1/5
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightHoward's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (2/2) vs. a 59% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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