This game · 146 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 16 points on 7-for-10 (70%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 6.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Minnesota Lynx created 11.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 10.9 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +8.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx got the cleaner diet — 60% rim or corner looks vs 33% for Portland Fire.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 48% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (48% vs 20%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 48% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (48% vs 20%).
Possession context
MIN ran more early offense in this game.
Minnesota Lynx got 34% of FGA in transition (1.08 expected pts/att) vs 17% for Portland Fire (0.97 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 44.3 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 9 (22 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMcBride found the right spots (50% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -3.2 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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