TSRBeta
Sunday, June 28, 2026 · Final

This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 293 games · 39,996 shots

107—99
Las Vegas Aces
LV
Aces
CHI
Sky
Chicago Sky

Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.

Jackie Young

led the way with 28 points on 9-for-14 (64%), headlined by 4-for-6 from above the break — 8.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Chicago Sky created 20.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 12.0 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Chicago Sky built a +8.5 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-20.5↑ Season best
+20.5↑ Above avg
Shot making
+12.0↑ Above avg
-1.5↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.02
1.06

Shot diet

Chicago Sky got the cleaner diet — 55% rim or corner looks vs 35% for Las Vegas Aces.

Chelsea Gray

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/5 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 51% of Chicago's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (51% vs 29%).

LV
29%15/18 · 83% FG
CHI
51%24/41 · 59% FG
4/4 2/2
Paint
LV
5%1/3 · 33% FG
CHI
6%2/5 · 40% FG
1/2 1/3
Corner 3
LV
6%1/4 · 25% FG
CHI
4%0/3 · 0% FG
1/2 0/2
Short mid
LV
19%6/12 · 50% FG
CHI
5%1/4 · 25% FG
5/5 0/1
Long mid
LV
8%1/5 · 20% FG
CHI
8%1/6 · 17% FG
1/2 1/2
Above break
LV
33%9/21 · 43% FG
CHI
26%9/21 · 43% FG
4/6 3/6

Possession context

LVCHI
Transition share27%26%
Second-chance share6%20%
After-steal share8%3%
Half-court expected pts/att1.021.04
Transition expected pts/att0.971.05

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 7.8 pts — SQ edge said CHI.

Chicago Sky got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 7.8 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

LVCHIEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots64.084.5CHI
Finishing vs expected+12.0-1.5LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts3116LV
Turnovers1111Even
Offensive rebounds611CHI

Process value (pts)

Process total100.392.5LV
↳ Looks + finishing76.083.0-7.0
↳ Free throws31.016.0+15.0
↳ Turnover cost-13.0-18.0+5.0
↳ Second chance6.311.5-5.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
10/15
FG%
67%
Pts
24
Vs expected
+2.9
C&S
1/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightCardoso was sharp — 93% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 64% from Rim (9/14) against a 58% baseline.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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