This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 19 points on 5-for-9 (56%), headlined by 5-for-6 from above the break — 6.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Marine Johannes close behind (+5.7 on 17 points).
- Atlanta Dream created 16.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 17.9 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +8.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream attacked the rim more — 39% of attempts in the restricted area vs 29% for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 29%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 29%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 1.1 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 15 (20 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightReese found the right spots (82% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -2.1 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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