TSRBeta
Saturday, May 30, 2026 · Final

This game · 133 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

81—84
Los Angeles Sparks
LA
Sparks
CONN
Sun
Connecticut Sun

Connecticut Sun won on finishing, not shot quality.

Kennedy Burke

scored with 14 points on 4-for-8 (50%), including 2-for-5 from three — 0.7 more than expected (50% from the rim or corner).

  1. Los Angeles Sparks created 3.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Connecticut Sun held up better (5.4 pts below expected).
  3. Q3 swung the look battle — Los Angeles Sparks built a +9.9 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+3.8↓ Below avg
-3.8↓ Below avg
Shot making
-9.1
-5.4↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.08
1.01

Shot diet

Los Angeles Sparks got the cleaner diet — 48% rim or corner looks vs 36% for Connecticut Sun.

Diamond Miller

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 44% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the rim vs 34% of Connecticut's, with Los Angeles leaning on the higher-value zone (44% vs 34%).

LA
44%16/29 · 55% FG
CONN
34%15/23 · 65% FG
3/4 3/3
Paint
LA
11%1/7 · 14% FG
CONN
7%1/5 · 20% FG
0/3 1/2
Corner 3
LA
5%2/3 · 67% FG
CONN
1%1/1 · 100% FG
1/1 1/1
Short mid
LA
2%1/1 · 100% FG
CONN
10%1/7 · 14% FG
1/1 0/2
Long mid
LA
6%1/4 · 25% FG
CONN
15%5/10 · 50% FG
1/3 2/4
Above break
LA
33%6/22 · 27% FG
CONN
31%5/21 · 24% FG
2/3 1/3

Possession context

CONN ran more early offense in this game.

Connecticut Sun got 34% of FGA in transition (1.05 expected pts/att) vs 18% for Los Angeles Sparks (1.04 expected pts/att).

LACONN
Transition share18%34%
Second-chance share21%22%
After-steal share5%4%
Half-court expected pts/att1.080.95
Transition expected pts/att1.041.05

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Connecticut Sun won by 9.0 pts — SQ edge said LA.

Los Angeles Sparks got the better looks, but Connecticut Sun won the full process battle by 9.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

LACONNEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots71.167.4LA
Finishing vs expected-9.1-5.4CONN

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1922CONN
Turnovers1716CONN
Offensive rebounds1112CONN

Process value (pts)

Process total71.580.6CONN
↳ Looks + finishing62.062.0-0.0
↳ Free throws19.022.0-3.0
↳ Turnover cost-21.0-16.0-5.0
↳ Second chance11.512.6-1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
5/14
FG%
36%
Pts
12
Vs expected
-2.2
C&S
2/5
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightLacan lived in the midrange — 43% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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