This game · 147 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Chicago Sky won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 30 points on 13-for-13 (100%), headlined by 13-for-13 in the interior — 11.4 more than expected overall with 92% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Portland Fire created 11.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Chicago Sky outperformed expected value by 30.6 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Portland Fire created a +7.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Chicago Sky (50% good looks) and Portland Fire (52% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 12/12 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 46% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 43% of Chicago's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 43%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 46% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 43% of Chicago's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 43%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Chicago Sky won by 22.8 pts — SQ edge said POR.
Portland Fire got the better looks, but Chicago Sky won the full process battle by 22.8 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCardoso was sharp — 92% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 100% from Rim (12/12) against a 58% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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