This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 27 points on 9-for-16 (56%), headlined by 5-for-9 from above the break — 7.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Los Angeles Sparks created 4.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — New York Liberty built a +4.7 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Los Angeles Sparks (44% good looks) and New York Liberty (39% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 30% of Los Angeles's; New York tilted here more (36% vs 30%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 30% of Los Angeles's; New York tilted here more (36% vs 30%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 0.2 pts — SQ edge said LA.
Los Angeles Sparks got the better looks, but New York Liberty carried the process scorecard.
New York Liberty won the free-throw line by 9 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBurrell was sharp — 59% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 60% from Above (3/5) against a 32% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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