TSRBeta
Sunday, August 16, 2026 · Final

This game · 163 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

95—91
Indiana Fever
IND
Fever
ATL
Dream
Atlanta Dream

Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.

Makayla Timpson

led the way with 20 points on 9-for-13 (69%), headlined by 8-for-11 at the rim — 3.4 more than expected overall with 85% of attempts from the rim or corner.

  1. Atlanta Dream created 4.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Indiana Fever held up better (2.2 pts below expected).
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Indiana Fever created a +4.2 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-4.8↓ Below avg
+4.8↓ Below avg
Shot making
-2.2↓ Below avg
-19.0↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.99
1.04

Shot diet

Atlanta Dream (38% good looks) and Indiana Fever (40% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Caitlin Clark

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

Rim
IND
36%20/29 · 69% FG
ATL
33%11/27 · 41% FG
4/5 2/3
Paint
IND
11%3/9 · 33% FG
ATL
10%4/8 · 50% FG
1/2 3/4
Corner 3
IND
4%1/3 · 33% FG
ATL
5%1/4 · 25% FG
0/2 1/2
Short mid
IND
7%1/6 · 17% FG
ATL
15%4/12 · 33% FG
1/3 2/8
Long mid
IND
16%6/13 · 46% FG
ATL
4%2/3 · 67% FG
4/8 1/2
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 34% of Atlanta's; Atlanta tilted here more (34% vs 26%).

IND
26%5/21 · 24% FG
ATL
34%7/28 · 25% FG
1/2 4/7

Possession context

INDATL
Transition share31%32%
Second-chance share12%13%
After-steal share6%1%
Half-court expected pts/att0.951.04
Transition expected pts/att1.041.01

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Indiana Fever won by 17.0 pts — SQ edge said ATL.

Atlanta Dream got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 17.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

INDATLEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots80.285.0ATL
Finishing vs expected-2.2-19.0IND

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1725ATL
Turnovers915IND
Offensive rebounds1011ATL

Process value (pts)

Process total97.580.5IND
↳ Looks + finishing78.066.0+12.0
↳ Free throws17.025.0-8.0
↳ Turnover cost-8.0-22.0+14.0
↳ Second chance10.511.5-1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
11/24
FG%
46%
Pts
32
Vs expected
+2.9
C&S
3/6
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightGray's strongest zone was Above — 57% from Above (4/7) vs. a 37% expectation.

Short midrangeShort midrange
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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Games
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6TOR83–97POR· Aug 6PHX82–96ATL· Aug 5SEA86–92NY· Aug 5DAL92–96WAS· Aug 5LA88–95CHI· Aug 5TOR81–92GSV· Aug 4LV109–87ATL· Aug 3SEA83–95NY· Aug 3PHX106–101CHI· Aug 3IND100–108MIN· Aug 2LA106–101POR· Aug 2CONN63–83DAL· Aug 2TOR79–96GSV· Aug 2LV83–84CHI· Aug 1NY94–92PHX· Aug 1SEA89–98ATL· Jul 31DAL75–81WAS· Jul 31IND112–98POR· Jul 31MIN104–72TOR· Jul 30CONN88–94CHI· Jul 30NY99–104LV· Jul 30ATL82–81DAL· Jul 29GSV89–91PHX· Jul 29CONN84–92WAS· Jul 28TOR93–100MIN· Jul 28IND105–95SEA· Jul 28POR83–98LV· Jul 28NY113–109LA· Jul 28PHX86–82LA· Jul 22MIN86–76SEA· Jul 22CHI94–95NY· Jul 22LV99–100WAS· Jul 22CONN88–123IND· Jul 22DAL101–97POR· Jul 22LV109–83TOR· Jul 20WAS90–82GSV· Jul 20MIN105–102SEA· Jul 20NY99–98DAL· Jul 20LA82–90DAL· Jul 19CHI91–93ATL· Jul 19CONN63–72PHX· Jul 19NY88–108IND· Jul 18POR93–101MIN· Jul 18WAS69–74GSV· Jul 18SEA107–110IND· Jul 17ATL111–92TOR· Jul 17LA82–96CHI· Jul 17CONN96–83PHX· Jul 17POR75–56WAS· Jul 16NY0–0DAL· Jul 16SEA90–95CHI· Jul 15LA87–96MIN· Jul 15GSV88–75IND· Jul 15POR87–90CONN· Jul 14WAS79–62TOR· Jul 14LA92–101ATL· Jul 13PHX100–104MIN· Jul 13NY91–93TOR· Jul 12SEA79–84WAS· Jul 12CHI91–96DAL· Jul 12IND109–75LV· Jul 12NY85–90MIN· Jul 11PHX58–106LV· Jul 11POR102–92ATL· Jul 11GSV79–64CONN· Jul 10DAL108–95TOR· Jul 10CHI87–102LA· Jul 10SEA78–89ATL· Jul 9IND92–89PHX· Jul 9LV88–80POR· Jul 9GSV83–75TOR· Jul 8MIN86–80CONN· Jul 8IND92–106LA· Jul 8DAL88–77NY· Jul 7CHI77–66PHX· Jul 7GSV62–49WAS· Jul 6CONN90–89MIN· Jul 6SEA82–64LA· Jul 6DAL89–76TOR· Jul 5IND84–68LV· Jul 5GSV88–83ATL· Jul 4POR77–72SEA· Jul 4MIN86–99NY· Jul 3CHI90–98LV· Jul 3ATL76–81WAS· Jul 2DAL86–83CONN· Jul 2SEA67–90PHX· Jul 2LV85–93NY· Jun 30MIN85–77DAL· Jun 28POR123–124WAS· Jun 28LV107–99CHI· Jun 28NY67–76GSV· Jun 28PHX89–80TOR· Jun 27LA87–111IND· Jun 27ATL90–105SEA· Jun 27WAS57–68CONN· Jun 26POR94–124CHI· Jun 26ATL75–78GSV· Jun 26LA97–125TOR· Jun 25DAL84–99LV· Jun 25NY88–99SEA· Jun 25PHX111–109IND· Jun 24MIN78–76WAS· Jun 24POR78–101CHI· Jun 24ATL66–77GSV· Jun 24NY87–76LV· Jun 23CHI63–92CONN· Jun 22TOR87–94ATL· Jun 22PHX77–86IND· Jun 22DAL112–110SEA· Jun 22GSV73–92LV· Jun 21WAS84–79MIN· Jun 21NY97–98LA· Jun 21IND96–113ATL· Jun 20SEA73–93PHX· Jun 20CHI92–93DAL· Jun 20TOR101–97CONN· Jun 19WAS86–83NY· Jun 19MIN81–75GSV· Jun 19ATL108–101IND· Jun 18WAS88–81CONN· Jun 17NY96–95CHI· Jun 17DAL80–91GSV· Jun 17MIN99–83LA· Jun 17LV86–76PHX· Jun 17SEA89–94POR· Jun 17TOR91–113IND· Jun 16LV66–96DAL· Jun 15POR74–107MIN· Jun 15LA58–78GSV· Jun 15WAS64–86NY· Jun 14ATL102–77TOR· Jun 14IND85–75CONN· Jun 13MIN97–100LV· Jun 13DAL83–84POR· Jun 13LA111–102PHX· Jun 13TOR85–86WAS· Jun 12GSV76–72SEA· Jun 12CHI106–114IND· Jun 11NY104–90ATL· Jun 11PHX70–85DAL· Jun 11LV105–89POR· Jun 11CONN102–106TOR· Jun 10LA88–83SEA· Jun 10ATL82–75CHI· Jun 9DAL76–100MIN· Jun 9PHX81–87GSV· Jun 9NY89–80CONN· Jun 8IND78–76WAS· Jun 8SEA91–101LV· Jun 8CHI68–85TOR· Jun 7POR72–89LA· Jun 7SEA68–88MIN· Jun 6GSV79–84LV· Jun 6WAS77–109ATL· Jun 6IND75–83NY· Jun 6CONN80–85CHI· Jun 5DAL104–96LA· Jun 5PHX78–72POR· Jun 5ATL71–83IND· Jun 4GSV84–87MIN· Jun 4TOR82–97NY· Jun 3PHX72–68SEA· Jun 3CONN75–91ATL· Jun 2CHI72–90WAS· Jun 2POR77–95GSV· Jun 2LV79–69LA· Jun 2SEA56–79DAL· Jun 1MIN111–77PHX· Jun 1LV91–81GSV· May 31SEA72–93TOR· May 30LA81–84CONN· May 30IND84–100POR· May 30PHX68–75NY· May 29LA92–87WAS· May 29MIN79–58CHI· May 29ATL86–66POR· May 29LV87–95DAL· May 28IND88–90GSV· May 28PHX74–84NY· May 27TOR111–104CHI· May 27ATL81–96MIN· May 27CONN61–71POR· May 27WAS78–64SEA· May 27POR81–74NY· May 25CONN70–97GSV· May 25PHX80–82ATL· May 24DAL91–76NY· May 24WAS85–97SEA· May 24MIN85–75CHI· May 23POR99–80TOR· May 23LA101–95LV· May 23DAL69–86ATL· May 22GSV82–90IND· May 22CONN59–77SEA· May 22GSV87–70NY· May 21TOR72–100MIN· May 21LA97–88PHX· May 21POR73–90IND· May 20DAL99–89CHI· May 20CONN80–78SEA· May 20TOR98–90PHX· May 19WAS69–92DAL· May 18CONN82–83POR· May 18CHI86–79MIN· May 17LV85–84ATL· May 17SEA78–89IND· May 17TOR106–96LA· May 17LV101–94CONN· May 15WAS104–102IND· May 15TOR95–99LA· May 15CHI83–91PHX· May 15MIN90–86DAL· May 14NY100–82POR· May 14SEA73–86TOR· May 13LV98–69CONN· May 13CHI69–63GSV· May 13IND87–78LA· May 13ATL77–72DAL· May 12MIN88–84PHX· May 12NY96–98POR· May 12SEA89–82CONN· May 10NY98–93WAS· May 10LV105–78LA· May 10PHX79–95GSV· May 10DAL107–104IND· May 9PHX99–66LV· May 9CHI98–83POR· May 9ATL91–90MIN· May 9CONN75–106NY· May 8WAS68–65TOR· May 8GSV91–80SEA· May 8NY79–67CONN· May 3LV84–101DAL· May 3LA85–75POR· May 3WAS83–72ATL· May 3TOR66–73MIN· May 1