This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won — the process matched the result.
led the way with 21 points on 10-for-12 (83%), headlined by 3-for-4 in the paint — 7.9 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Minnesota Lynx created 0.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 14.2 points on makes and misses.
- Natasha Howard carried the finishing gap — +7.9 vs expected on 21 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 52% rim or corner looks vs 30% for Minnesota Lynx.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 39% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 13.7 pts
Minnesota Lynx got the better looks, but Washington Mystics carried the process scorecard.
Washington Mystics won the free-throw line by 8 pts and the turnover battle by 8. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightIriafen found the right spots (53% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -1.4 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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