This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won — the process matched the result.
led the way with 18 points on 6-for-9 (67%), headlined by 4-for-4 in the interior — 3.7 more than expected overall with 56% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Atlanta Dream created 1.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Seattle Storm held up better (2.2 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Seattle Storm created a +10.8 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 50% rim or corner looks vs 34% for Seattle Storm.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 7.1 pts
Atlanta Dream won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightHoward struggled most from Cor 3 — 0/2 against a 45% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →