This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 293 games · 39,996 shots
Washington Mystics won — the process matched the result.
made every look count with 10 points on 4-for-4 (100%) on 4 looks worth 4.1 expected (at the rim, from the corner, from above the break, from short midrange) — 5.9 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Washington Mystics created 0.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Washington Mystics outperformed expected value by 14.5 points on finishing.
- Natasha Mack carried the finishing gap — +7.3 vs expected on 19 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury (20% good looks) and Washington Mystics (21% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 3/4 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 21% of Washington's attempts came from the paint vs 27% of Phoenix's; Phoenix tilted here more (27% vs 21%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 21% of Washington's attempts came from the paint vs 27% of Phoenix's; Phoenix tilted here more (27% vs 21%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 4.2 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Paint — 80% from Paint (4/5) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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