This game · 153 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 14 points on 5-for-7 (71%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 4.4 more than expected overall (43% from the rim or corner).
- Seattle Storm created 8.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Portland Fire held up better (3.0 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Seattle Storm created a +7.6 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm (33% good looks) and Portland Fire (35% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 40% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of Seattle's; Portland tilted here more (40% vs 37%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 40% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of Seattle's; Portland tilted here more (40% vs 37%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Seattle Storm won by 17.1 pts
Seattle Storm won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMalonga struggled most from S.Mid — 0/4 against a 42% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →