This game · 149 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 28 points on 9-for-16 (56%), headlined by 7-for-10 from above the break — 9.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Golden State Valkyries created 7.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Minnesota Lynx held up better (1.9 pts below expected).
- Q2 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +5.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (29%) while Golden State Valkyries was at 11% — a cleaner profile for Golden State Valkyries.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 7/12 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 4% of Golden State's attempts came from long midrange vs 23% of Minnesota's; Minnesota settled here more often (23% vs 4%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 4% of Golden State's attempts came from long midrange vs 23% of Minnesota's; Minnesota settled here more often (23% vs 4%).
Possession context
MIN ran more early offense in this game.
Minnesota Lynx got 32% of FGA in transition (0.99 expected pts/att) vs 18% for Golden State Valkyries (1.11 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 1.8 pts
Golden State Valkyries won the turnover battle by 5 (12 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams lived in the midrange — 78% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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