TSRBeta
Thursday, October 1, 2026 · Final

This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

83—94
Indiana Fever
IND
Fever
LV
Aces
Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.

A'ja Wilson

led the way with 36 points on 11-for-18 (61%), headlined by 5-for-7 from short midrange — 7.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Indiana Fever created 18.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 4.3 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Indiana Fever created a +11.6 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+18.6↑ Above avg
-18.6↑ Above avg
Shot making
-11.3
+4.3↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.03
0.96

Shot diet

Indiana Fever got the cleaner diet — 37% rim or corner looks vs 25% for Las Vegas Aces.

A'ja Wilson

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/7 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Indiana's attempts came from the rim vs 22% of Las Vegas's, with Indiana leaning on the higher-value zone (33% vs 22%).

IND
33%16/26 · 62% FG
LV
22%7/14 · 50% FG
6/8 2/3
Paint
IND
12%1/9 · 11% FG
LV
8%0/5 · 0% FG
1/2 0/2
Corner 3
IND
4%1/3 · 33% FG
LV
3%1/2 · 50% FG
0/1 1/2
Short mid
IND
9%2/7 · 29% FG
LV
22%9/14 · 64% FG
1/1 5/7
Long mid
IND
5%2/4 · 50% FG
LV
17%5/11 · 45% FG
1/2 2/5
Above break
IND
37%8/29 · 28% FG
LV
28%7/18 · 39% FG
1/3 2/3

Possession context

INDLV
Transition share37%27%
Second-chance share13%6%
After-steal share5%3%
Half-court expected pts/att1.040.95
Transition expected pts/att1.000.95

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 3.7 pts — SQ edge said IND.

Indiana Fever got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces carried the process scorecard.

Las Vegas Aces won the free-throw line by 14 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.

INDLVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots80.361.7IND
Finishing vs expected-11.3+4.3LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1428LV
Turnovers1010Even
Offensive rebounds92IND

Process value (pts)

Process total78.482.1LV
↳ Looks + finishing69.066.0+3.0
↳ Free throws14.028.0-14.0
↳ Turnover cost-14.0-14.0+0.0
↳ Second chance9.42.1+7.3

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
11/18
FG%
61%
Pts
36
Vs expected
+7.4
C&S
3/5
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightWilson created in difficult areas and delivered — 71% from S.Mid (5/7) well above the 41% baseline for that zone.

Short midrangeShort midrange
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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