This game · 131 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Phoenix Mercury won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 27 points on 9-for-14 (64%), headlined by 3-for-3 from above the break — 7.8 more than expected overall (43% from the rim or corner), with Alyssa Thomas close behind (+7.5 on 25 points).
- Golden State Valkyries created 26.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 7.9 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +12.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury (24% good looks) and Golden State Valkyries (26% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Phoenix's; Golden State tilted here more (37% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Phoenix's; Golden State tilted here more (37% vs 25%).
Possession context
PHX ran more early offense in this game.
Phoenix Mercury got 29% of FGA in transition (1.01 expected pts/att) vs 12% for Golden State Valkyries (1.08 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 7.3 pts
Golden State Valkyries won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightThomas's strongest zone was Paint — 67% from Paint (6/9) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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