TSRBeta
Friday, September 18, 2026 · Final

This game · 148 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

93—81
New York Liberty
NY
Liberty
MIN
Lynx
Minnesota Lynx

New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.

Pauline Astier

led the way with 14 points on 6-for-8 (75%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 5.6 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Marine Johannes close behind (+4.7 on 13 points).

  1. Minnesota Lynx created 1.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 6.0 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +7.0 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-1.5↓ Below avg
+1.5↓ Below avg
Shot making
+6.0↓ Below avg
-12.5↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.01
1.03

Shot diet

Minnesota Lynx (41% good looks) and New York Liberty (39% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Breanna Stewart

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of New York's attempts came from the rim vs 36% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (36% vs 31%).

NY
31%13/23 · 57% FG
MIN
36%17/27 · 63% FG
4/5 4/5
Paint
NY
15%2/11 · 18% FG
MIN
11%3/8 · 38% FG
1/2 1/2
Corner 3
NY
8%2/6 · 33% FG
MIN
4%1/3 · 33% FG
1/2 0/2
Short mid
NY
11%4/8 · 50% FG
MIN
12%2/9 · 22% FG
1/4 0/4
Long mid
NY
4%2/3 · 67% FG
MIN
11%1/8 · 13% FG
2/2 1/3
Above break
NY
31%11/23 · 48% FG
MIN
26%5/19 · 26% FG
2/2 2/3

Possession context

NYMIN
Transition share30%30%
Second-chance share16%18%
After-steal share7%1%
Half-court expected pts/att0.991.03
Transition expected pts/att1.061.03

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

New York Liberty won by 10.9 pts — SQ edge said MIN.

Minnesota Lynx got the better looks, but New York Liberty won the full process battle by 10.9 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

NYMINEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots75.076.5MIN
Finishing vs expected+6.0-12.5NY

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1217MIN
Turnovers1619NY
Offensive rebounds811MIN

Process value (pts)

Process total82.471.5NY
↳ Looks + finishing81.064.0+17.0
↳ Free throws12.017.0-5.0
↳ Turnover cost-19.0-21.0+2.0
↳ Second chance8.411.5-3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
5/18
FG%
28%
Pts
20
Vs expected
-9.2
C&S
0/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightMiles found the right spots (61% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -9.2 below expected on those looks.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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