TSRBeta
Friday, July 3, 2026 · Final

This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

90—98
Chicago Sky
CHI
Sky
LV
Aces
Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.

NaLyssa Smith

led the way with 29 points on 11-for-14 (79%), headlined by 3-for-3 in the paint — 7.0 more than expected overall with 64% of attempts from the rim or corner.

  1. Las Vegas Aces created 2.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 5.6 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Chicago Sky created a +4.7 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-2.6↓ Below avg
+2.6↓ Below avg
Shot making
-2.7↓ Below avg
+5.6↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.01
0.99

Shot diet

Chicago Sky got the cleaner diet — 45% rim or corner looks vs 32% for Las Vegas Aces.

NaLyssa Smith

carried the offense at the rim — 7/9 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 28% of Las Vegas's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (34% vs 28%).

CHI
34%15/22 · 68% FG
LV
28%13/19 · 68% FG
3/3 7/9
Paint
CHI
20%4/13 · 31% FG
LV
9%4/6 · 67% FG
1/2 3/3
Corner 3
CHI
11%2/7 · 29% FG
LV
4%1/3 · 33% FG
1/2 1/2
Short mid
CHI
8%2/5 · 40% FG
LV
22%9/15 · 60% FG
1/2 3/7
Long mid
CHI
8%0/5 · 0% FG
LV
10%5/7 · 71% FG
0/1 3/4
Above break
CHI
20%5/13 · 38% FG
LV
28%3/19 · 16% FG
1/2 1/2

Possession context

CHI ran more early offense in this game.

Chicago Sky got 35% of FGA in transition (1.03 expected pts/att) vs 22% for Las Vegas Aces (0.98 expected pts/att).

CHILV
Transition share35%22%
Second-chance share8%6%
After-steal share2%6%
Half-court expected pts/att0.991.02
Transition expected pts/att1.030.98

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 20.0 pts

Las Vegas Aces won the turnover battle by 5 (18 total TO).

Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.

CHILVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots65.768.4LV
Finishing vs expected-2.7+5.6LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2724CHI
Turnovers1813LV
Offensive rebounds66Even

Process value (pts)

Process total75.395.3LV
↳ Looks + finishing63.074.0-11.0
↳ Free throws27.024.0+3.0
↳ Turnover cost-21.0-9.0-12.0
↳ Second chance6.36.3+0.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
7/17
FG%
41%
Pts
18
Vs expected
-0.2
C&S
0/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightGray lived in the midrange — 65% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.

Short midrangeShort midrange
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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