This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Toronto Tempo won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 18 points on 7-for-8 (88%), headlined by 5-for-5 in the interior — 8.0 more than expected overall.
- New York Liberty created 12.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 9.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — New York Liberty built a +6.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty got the cleaner diet — 46% rim or corner looks vs 33% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Toronto's; Toronto tilted here more (36% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Toronto's; Toronto tilted here more (36% vs 26%).
Possession context
TOR ran more early offense in this game.
Toronto Tempo got 32% of FGA in transition (1.02 expected pts/att) vs 20% for New York Liberty (1.09 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 1.2 pts
New York Liberty won the turnover battle by 5 (23 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey created in difficult areas and delivered — 67% from L.Mid (2/3) well above the 37% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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