TSRBeta
Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Final

This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

76—75
Golden State Valkyries
GSV
Valkyries
LA
Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks

Golden State Valkyries won by getting the better shots.

Kaitlyn Chen

led the way with 18 points on 8-for-12 (67%), headlined by 4-for-5 at the rim — 4.7 more than expected overall (42% from the rim or corner).

  1. Golden State Valkyries created 2.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Los Angeles Sparks held up better (3.5 pts below expected).
  3. Golden State Valkyries's edge came from rim pressure — 44% of attempts at the restricted area.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+2.5↓ Below avg
-2.5↓ Below avg
Shot making
-12.0↑ Above avg
-3.5↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.03
1.01

Shot diet

Golden State Valkyries got the cleaner diet — 48% rim or corner looks vs 34% for Los Angeles Sparks.

Nneka Ogwumike

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/7 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Golden State's attempts came from the rim vs 25% of Los Angeles's, with Golden State leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 25%).

GSV
43%15/30 · 50% FG
LA
25%11/17 · 65% FG
4/5 4/4
Paint
GSV
7%3/5 · 60% FG
LA
16%1/11 · 9% FG
1/2 0/5
Corner 3
GSV
4%2/3 · 67% FG
LA
9%3/6 · 50% FG
0/1 2/2
Short mid
GSV
12%3/8 · 38% FG
LA
12%6/8 · 75% FG
2/3 5/7
Long mid
GSV
12%1/8 · 13% FG
LA
10%1/7 · 14% FG
1/3 0/3
Above break
GSV
22%3/15 · 20% FG
LA
28%6/19 · 32% FG
1/2 1/2

Possession context

LA ran more early offense in this game.

Los Angeles Sparks got 28% of FGA in transition (1.06 expected pts/att) vs 13% for Golden State Valkyries (1.08 expected pts/att).

GSVLA
Transition share13%28%
Second-chance share12%15%
After-steal share3%0%
Half-court expected pts/att1.000.98
Transition expected pts/att1.081.06

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Golden State Valkyries won by 12.1 pts

Golden State Valkyries won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

GSVLAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots71.068.5GSV
Finishing vs expected-12.0-3.5LA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1710GSV
Turnovers1014GSV
Offensive rebounds96GSV

Process value (pts)

Process total78.466.3GSV
↳ Looks + finishing59.065.0-6.0
↳ Free throws17.010.0+7.0
↳ Turnover cost-7.0-15.0+8.0
↳ Second chance9.46.3+3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
8/17
FG%
47%
Pts
17
Vs expected
-0.6
C&S
0/5
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightOgwumike lived in the midrange — 41% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.

Short midrangeShort midrange
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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