This game · 133 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Phoenix Mercury won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 16 points on 6-for-7 (86%), headlined by 4-for-5 from above the break — 8.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Seattle Storm created 5.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 9.7 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Seattle Storm built a +4.7 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm attacked the rim more — 13% of attempts in the restricted area vs 5% for Phoenix Mercury.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 30% of Seattle's attempts came from the paint vs 22% of Phoenix's; Seattle tilted here more (30% vs 22%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 30% of Seattle's attempts came from the paint vs 22% of Phoenix's; Seattle tilted here more (30% vs 22%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 18.9 pts — SQ edge said SEA.
Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Phoenix Mercury won the full process battle by 18.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightHeld lived in the midrange — 42% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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