TSRBeta
Sunday, August 30, 2026 · Final

This game · 155 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

90—74
Los Angeles Sparks
LA
Sparks
SEA
Storm
Seattle Storm

Los Angeles Sparks won on finishing, not shot quality.

Nneka Ogwumike

led the way with 23 points on 9-for-17 (53%), headlined by 3-for-5 from above the break — 5.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Erica Wheeler close behind (+5.0 on 9 points, 3-for-4 on tough looks).

  1. Seattle Storm created 4.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 3.6 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Seattle Storm created a +5.5 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-4.3↓ Below avg
+4.3↓ Below avg
Shot making
+3.6↓ Below avg
-16.7↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.99
0.94

Shot diet

Seattle Storm (24% good looks) and Los Angeles Sparks (25% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Rae Burrell

carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.

Rim
LA
19%12/14 · 86% FG
SEA
21%14/17 · 82% FG
3/3 3/3
Paint
LA
16%3/12 · 25% FG
SEA
29%6/24 · 25% FG
1/2 4/9
Corner 3
LA
5%1/4 · 25% FG
SEA
4%0/3 · 0% FG
1/2 0/1
Short mid
LA
18%4/13 · 31% FG
SEA
11%3/9 · 33% FG
3/6 2/4
Long mid
LA
4%1/3 · 33% FG
SEA
12%1/10 · 10% FG
1/1 0/3
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Los Angeles's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 23% of Seattle's; Los Angeles tilted here more (37% vs 23%).

LA
37%11/27 · 41% FG
SEA
23%4/19 · 21% FG
3/4 1/2

Possession context

LASEA
Transition share32%29%
Second-chance share10%16%
After-steal share8%4%
Half-court expected pts/att0.990.95
Transition expected pts/att0.930.92

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Los Angeles Sparks won by 2.6 pts — SQ edge said SEA.

Seattle Storm won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

LASEAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots72.476.7SEA
Finishing vs expected+3.6-16.7LA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1414Even
Turnovers1716SEA
Offensive rebounds514SEA

Process value (pts)

Process total74.271.6LA
↳ Looks + finishing76.060.0+16.0
↳ Free throws14.014.0+0.0
↳ Turnover cost-21.0-17.0-4.0
↳ Second chance5.214.6-9.4

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
8/21
FG%
38%
Pts
17
Vs expected
-3.5
C&S
1/7
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightMalonga's strongest zone was Rim — 100% from Rim (3/3) vs. a 58% expectation.

Paint (non-rim)
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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28PHX89–80TOR· Jun 27LA87–111IND· Jun 27ATL90–105SEA· Jun 27WAS57–68CONN· Jun 26POR94–124CHI· Jun 26ATL75–78GSV· Jun 26LA97–125TOR· Jun 25DAL84–99LV· Jun 25NY88–99SEA· Jun 25PHX111–109IND· Jun 24MIN78–76WAS· Jun 24POR78–101CHI· Jun 24ATL66–77GSV· Jun 24NY87–76LV· Jun 23CHI63–92CONN· Jun 22TOR87–94ATL· Jun 22PHX77–86IND· Jun 22DAL112–110SEA· Jun 22GSV73–92LV· Jun 21WAS84–79MIN· Jun 21NY97–98LA· Jun 21IND96–113ATL· Jun 20SEA73–93PHX· Jun 20CHI92–93DAL· Jun 20TOR101–97CONN· Jun 19WAS86–83NY· Jun 19MIN81–75GSV· Jun 19ATL108–101IND· Jun 18WAS88–81CONN· Jun 17NY96–95CHI· Jun 17DAL80–91GSV· Jun 17MIN99–83LA· Jun 17LV86–76PHX· Jun 17SEA89–94POR· Jun 17TOR91–113IND· Jun 16LV66–96DAL· Jun 15POR74–107MIN· Jun 15LA58–78GSV· Jun 15WAS64–86NY· Jun 14ATL102–77TOR· Jun 14IND85–75CONN· Jun 13MIN97–100LV· Jun 13DAL83–84POR· Jun 13LA111–102PHX· Jun 13TOR85–86WAS· Jun 12GSV76–72SEA· Jun 12CHI106–114IND· Jun 11NY104–90ATL· Jun 11PHX70–85DAL· Jun 11LV105–89POR· Jun 11CONN102–106TOR· Jun 10LA88–83SEA· Jun 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21POR73–90IND· May 20DAL99–89CHI· May 20CONN80–78SEA· May 20TOR98–90PHX· May 19WAS69–92DAL· May 18CONN82–83POR· May 18CHI86–79MIN· May 17LV85–84ATL· May 17SEA78–89IND· May 17TOR106–96LA· May 17LV101–94CONN· May 15WAS104–102IND· May 15TOR95–99LA· May 15CHI83–91PHX· May 15MIN90–86DAL· May 14NY100–82POR· May 14SEA73–86TOR· May 13LV98–69CONN· May 13CHI69–63GSV· May 13IND87–78LA· May 13ATL77–72DAL· May 12MIN88–84PHX· May 12NY96–98POR· May 12SEA89–82CONN· May 10NY98–93WAS· May 10LV105–78LA· May 10PHX79–95GSV· May 10DAL107–104IND· May 9PHX99–66LV· May 9CHI98–83POR· May 9ATL91–90MIN· May 9CONN75–106NY· May 8WAS68–65TOR· May 8GSV91–80SEA· May 8NY79–67CONN· May 3LV84–101DAL· May 3LA85–75POR· May 3WAS83–72ATL· May 3TOR66–73MIN· May 1