TSRBeta
Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · Final

This game · 144 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

86—82
Phoenix Mercury
PHX
Mercury
LA
Sparks
Los Angeles Sparks

Phoenix Mercury won by getting the better shots.

Kahleah Copper

led the way with 21 points on 10-for-16 (63%), headlined by 8-for-9 at the rim — 4.3 more than expected overall with 63% of attempts from the rim or corner.

  1. Phoenix Mercury created 2.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 2.0 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q3 swung the look battle — Phoenix Mercury built a +9.3 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+2.6↓ Below avg
-2.6↓ Below avg
Shot making
+2.0↓ Below avg
-7.4↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.01
1.03

Shot diet

Los Angeles Sparks (33% good looks) and Phoenix Mercury (37% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Kahleah Copper

carried the offense at the rim — 8/9 in the restricted area.

Rim
PHX
31%20/23 · 87% FG
LA
29%12/20 · 60% FG
3/3 6/8
Paint
PHX
12%4/9 · 44% FG
LA
16%3/11 · 27% FG
2/2 1/2
Corner 3
PHX
5%0/4 · 0% FG
LA
4%2/3 · 67% FG
0/1 1/1
Short mid
PHX
9%3/7 · 43% FG
LA
9%2/6 · 33% FG
1/2 1/2
Long mid
PHX
11%1/8 · 13% FG
LA
7%2/5 · 40% FG
1/2 1/2
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Phoenix's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Los Angeles's; Los Angeles tilted here more (36% vs 31%).

PHX
31%7/23 · 30% FG
LA
36%7/25 · 28% FG
1/2 2/5

Possession context

PHXLA
Transition share28%27%
Second-chance share14%19%
After-steal share4%4%
Half-court expected pts/att1.001.05
Transition expected pts/att1.071.02

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Phoenix Mercury won by 6.9 pts

Phoenix Mercury got the better looks, but Los Angeles Sparks carried the process scorecard.

Los Angeles Sparks won the free-throw line by 8 pts and the turnover battle by 6. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.

PHXLAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots75.072.4PHX
Finishing vs expected+2.0-7.4PHX

ESPN box score

Free throw pts917LA
Turnovers1218PHX
Offensive rebounds710LA

Process value (pts)

Process total82.375.5PHX
↳ Looks + finishing77.065.0+12.0
↳ Free throws9.017.0-8.0
↳ Turnover cost-11.0-17.0+6.0
↳ Second chance7.310.5-3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
7/16
FG%
44%
Pts
20
Vs expected
+0.5
C&S
3/5
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightBurrell's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (1/1) vs. a 44% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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