This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Phoenix Mercury won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 27 points on 10-for-15 (67%), headlined by 8-for-8 at the rim — 5.6 more than expected overall with 60% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Phoenix Mercury created 3.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 7.2 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Phoenix Mercury created a +3.3 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury got the cleaner diet — 48% rim or corner looks vs 22% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 8/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 21% of Toronto's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 21%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 21% of Toronto's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (37% vs 21%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 17.1 pts
Phoenix Mercury won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightConde struggled most from L.Mid — 0/2 against a 36% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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