This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 19 points on 8-for-15 (53%), headlined by 3-for-7 from above the break — 3.3 more than expected overall (40% from the rim or corner).
- Dallas Wings created 0.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Atlanta Dream held up better (10.9 pts below expected).
- Q2 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +3.8 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream attacked the rim more — 33% of attempts in the restricted area vs 23% for Dallas Wings.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 3/3 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 46% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Dallas's; Atlanta tilted here more (46% vs 33%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 46% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Dallas's; Atlanta tilted here more (46% vs 33%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 6.2 pts
Atlanta Dream won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightOgunbowale's strongest zone was L.Mid — 100% from L.Mid (3/3) vs. a 36% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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