This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Los Angeles Sparks won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 16 points on 7-for-11 (64%), headlined by 2-for-2 at the rim — 5.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Las Vegas Aces created 11.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 26.5 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +3.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces (13% good looks) and Los Angeles Sparks (15% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the paint vs 26% of Las Vegas's; Los Angeles tilted here more (31% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Los Angeles's attempts came from the paint vs 26% of Las Vegas's; Los Angeles tilted here more (31% vs 26%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 12.4 pts
Las Vegas Aces won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson went 8/20 (40% FG), -0.2 vs expected — 5% from the rim or corner.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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