This game · 133 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 22 points on 7-for-15 (47%), headlined by 4-for-9 from above the break — 3.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Golden State Valkyries created 5.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 2.1 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +5.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Indiana Fever (44% good looks) and Golden State Valkyries (44% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
found the right spots — 3 attempts at the rim — but couldn't convert, going 1/3.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Indiana's; Indiana tilted here more (33% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Indiana's; Indiana tilted here more (33% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 0.9 pts — SQ edge said GSV.
Golden State Valkyries won the turnover battle by 5 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightClark's strongest zone was Above — 44% from Above (4/9) vs. a 32% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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