This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won on finishing, not shot quality.
made every look count with 12 points on 4-for-4 (100%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 5.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Las Vegas Aces created 4.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 6.5 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +6.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces lived in the midrange (29%) while New York Liberty was at 17% — a cleaner profile for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 24% of Las Vegas's; New York tilted here more (38% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 24% of Las Vegas's; New York tilted here more (38% vs 24%).
Possession context
LV ran more early offense in this game.
Las Vegas Aces got 38% of FGA in transition (0.95 expected pts/att) vs 20% for New York Liberty (1.12 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 2.0 pts — SQ edge said LV.
Las Vegas Aces got the better looks, but New York Liberty carried the process scorecard.
New York Liberty won the free-throw line by 8 pts and the turnover battle by 4. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightYoung's strongest zone was L.Mid — 67% from L.Mid (2/3) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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