This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Golden State Valkyries won on finishing, not shot quality.

led the way with 24 points on 9-for-15 (60%), headlined by 3-for-3 in the interior — 6.5 more than expected overall (40% from the rim or corner).
- Toronto Tempo created 3.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Golden State Valkyries outperformed expected value by 14.2 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Toronto Tempo created a +4.5 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries lived in the midrange (22%) while Toronto Tempo was at 12% — a cleaner profile for Toronto Tempo.

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/2 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Toronto's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 22% of Golden State's; Toronto tilted here more (33% vs 22%).

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Toronto's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 22% of Golden State's; Toronto tilted here more (33% vs 22%).
Possession context

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard

Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 13.7 pts — SQ edge said TOR.
Toronto Tempo got the better looks, but Golden State Valkyries won the full process battle by 13.7 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightSalaun created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from L.Mid (2/2) well above the 39% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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