This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 14 points on 6-for-8 (75%), headlined by 4-for-4 at the rim — 4.7 more than expected overall with 63% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Sarah Ashlee Barker close behind (+4.3 on 12 points).
- Portland Fire created 7.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 5.7 points on makes and misses.
- Portland Fire's edge came from rim pressure — 43% of attempts at the restricted area.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire got the cleaner diet — 56% rim or corner looks vs 38% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 30% of Toronto's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 30%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Portland's attempts came from the rim vs 30% of Toronto's, with Portland leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 30%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 34.0 pts
Portland Fire won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey created in difficult areas and delivered — 38% from Above (3/8) well above the 31% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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