This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Chicago Sky won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 21 points on 8-for-12 (67%), headlined by 4-for-4 at the rim — 6.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Portland Fire created 2.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Chicago Sky outperformed expected value by 2.0 points on makes and misses.
- Skylar Diggins carried the finishing gap — +6.1 vs expected on 21 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Chicago Sky got the cleaner diet — 48% rim or corner looks vs 31% for Portland Fire.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 45% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 24% of Portland's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (45% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 45% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 24% of Portland's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (45% vs 24%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Chicago Sky won by 30.5 pts — SQ edge said POR.
Portland Fire got the better looks, but Chicago Sky won the full process battle by 30.5 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightLeite struggled most from Paint — 0/2 against a 41% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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