This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 34 points on 12-for-19 (63%), headlined by 6-for-12 from above the break — 13.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Connecticut Sun created 11.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 26.0 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +12.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Indiana Fever (30% good looks) and Connecticut Sun (34% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Connecticut's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of Indiana's; Indiana tilted here more (37% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Connecticut's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of Indiana's; Indiana tilted here more (37% vs 28%).
Possession context
IND ran more early offense in this game.
Indiana Fever got 42% of FGA in transition (0.95 expected pts/att) vs 28% for Connecticut Sun (1.06 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 23.0 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Connecticut Sun got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 23.0 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightClark created in difficult areas and delivered — 50% from Above (6/12) well above the 28% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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