This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Dallas Wings won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 15 points on 7-for-9 (78%), headlined by 4-for-4 in the interior — 5.9 more than expected overall with 56% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Dallas Wings created 5.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 2.3 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +4.4 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings got the cleaner diet — 42% rim or corner looks vs 31% for Connecticut Sun.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Dallas's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 27%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Dallas's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 27%).
Possession context
CONN earned cleaner half-court looks.
Connecticut Sun at 0.91 half-court expected pts/att vs Dallas Wings at 1.04 — set-defense quality separated more than transition volume.
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Dallas Wings won by 19.9 pts
Dallas Wings won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightShepard's strongest zone was Rim — 88% from Rim (7/8) vs. a 62% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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