This game · 127 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Toronto Tempo won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 26 points on 9-for-20 (45%), headlined by 2-for-2 from the corner — 4.4 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Toronto Tempo created 12.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Seattle Storm outperformed expected value by 4.0 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Toronto Tempo created a +8.0 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo (36% good looks) and Seattle Storm (31% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Seattle's attempts came from short midrange vs 13% of Toronto's; Seattle settled here more often (19% vs 13%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Seattle's attempts came from short midrange vs 13% of Toronto's; Seattle settled here more often (19% vs 13%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Toronto Tempo won by 31.3 pts
Toronto Tempo won the turnover battle by 7 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (2/2) vs. a 32% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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