TSRBeta
Thursday, June 18, 2026 · Final

This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

108—101
Atlanta Dream
ATL
Dream
IND
Fever
Indiana Fever

Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.

Allisha Gray

led the way with 17 points on 6-for-11 (55%), headlined by 3-for-3 at the rim — 2.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Te-Hina Paopao close behind (+2.6 on 7 points).

  1. Atlanta Dream created 12.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 19.5 points on finishing.
  3. Q2 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +4.6 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+12.3↑ Above avg
-12.3↑ Above avg
Shot making
+10.2
+19.5↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
1.03
0.93

Shot diet

Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 45% rim or corner looks vs 25% for Indiana Fever.

Caitlin Clark

carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 42% of Atlanta's attempts came from the rim vs 22% of Indiana's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (42% vs 22%).

ATL
42%18/29 · 62% FG
IND
22%12/14 · 86% FG
3/3 2/2
Paint
ATL
25%11/17 · 65% FG
IND
27%10/17 · 59% FG
2/2 2/2
Corner 3
ATL
3%2/2 · 100% FG
IND
3%1/2 · 50% FG
2/2 1/2
Short mid
ATL
6%1/4 · 25% FG
IND
13%1/8 · 13% FG
0/1 0/3
Long mid
ATL
1%0/1 · 0% FG
IND
11%4/7 · 57% FG
0/1 2/4
Above break
ATL
23%5/16 · 31% FG
IND
24%7/15 · 47% FG
1/2 2/3

Possession context

ATL ran more early offense in this game.

Atlanta Dream got 33% of FGA in transition (1.02 expected pts/att) vs 14% for Indiana Fever (0.85 expected pts/att).

ATLIND
Transition share33%14%
Second-chance share13%3%
After-steal share3%6%
Half-court expected pts/att1.020.94
Transition expected pts/att1.020.85

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Atlanta Dream won by 17.1 pts

Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 6 (18 total TO).

Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.

ATLINDEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots70.858.5ATL
Finishing vs expected+10.2+19.5IND

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2723ATL
Turnovers1218ATL
Offensive rebounds85ATL

Process value (pts)

Process total103.486.2ATL
↳ Looks + finishing81.078.0+3.0
↳ Free throws27.023.0+4.0
↳ Turnover cost-13.0-20.0+7.0
↳ Second chance8.45.2+3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
8/17
FG%
47%
Pts
26
Vs expected
+2.5
C&S
2/2
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightClark's strongest zone was Rim — 75% from Rim (3/4) vs. a 58% expectation.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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5ATL71–83IND· Jun 4GSV84–87MIN· Jun 4TOR82–97NY· Jun 3PHX72–68SEA· Jun 3CONN75–91ATL· Jun 2CHI72–90WAS· Jun 2POR77–95GSV· Jun 2LV79–69LA· Jun 2SEA56–79DAL· Jun 1MIN111–77PHX· Jun 1LV91–81GSV· May 31SEA72–93TOR· May 30LA81–84CONN· May 30IND84–100POR· May 30PHX68–75NY· May 29LA92–87WAS· May 29MIN79–58CHI· May 29ATL86–66POR· May 29LV87–95DAL· May 28IND88–90GSV· May 28PHX74–84NY· May 27TOR111–104CHI· May 27ATL81–96MIN· May 27CONN61–71POR· May 27WAS78–64SEA· May 27POR81–74NY· May 25CONN70–97GSV· May 25PHX80–82ATL· May 24DAL91–76NY· May 24WAS85–97SEA· May 24MIN85–75CHI· May 23POR99–80TOR· May 23LA101–95LV· May 23DAL69–86ATL· May 22GSV82–90IND· May 22CONN59–77SEA· May 22GSV87–70NY· May 21TOR72–100MIN· May 21LA97–88PHX· May 21POR73–90IND· May 20DAL99–89CHI· May 20CONN80–78SEA· May 20TOR98–90PHX· May 19WAS69–92DAL· May 18CONN82–83POR· May 18CHI86–79MIN· May 17LV85–84ATL· May 17SEA78–89IND· May 17TOR106–96LA· May 17LV101–94CONN· May 15WAS104–102IND· May 15TOR95–99LA· May 15CHI83–91PHX· May 15MIN90–86DAL· May 14NY100–82POR· May 14SEA73–86TOR· May 13LV98–69CONN· May 13CHI69–63GSV· May 13IND87–78LA· May 13ATL77–72DAL· May 12MIN88–84PHX· May 12NY96–98POR· May 12SEA89–82CONN· May 10NY98–93WAS· May 10LV105–78LA· May 10PHX79–95GSV· May 10DAL107–104IND· May 9PHX99–66LV· May 9CHI98–83POR· May 9ATL91–90MIN· May 9CONN75–106NY· May 8WAS68–65TOR· May 8GSV91–80SEA· May 8NY79–67CONN· May 3LV84–101DAL· May 3LA85–75POR· May 3WAS83–72ATL· May 3TOR66–73MIN· May 1