This game · 135 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Phoenix Mercury won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 17 points on 6-for-11 (55%), headlined by 3-for-4 from above the break — 6.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Phoenix Mercury created 13.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 4.6 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Phoenix Mercury built a +7.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury got the cleaner diet — 34% rim or corner looks vs 18% for Seattle Storm.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 13% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 25% of Phoenix's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (25% vs 13%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 13% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 25% of Phoenix's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (25% vs 13%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 36.4 pts
Phoenix Mercury won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Rim — 88% from Rim (7/8) vs. a 56% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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