This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Toronto Tempo won on finishing, not shot quality.

led the way with 19 points on 5-for-8 (63%), headlined by 2-for-2 at the rim — 3.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Los Angeles Sparks created 6.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Los Angeles Sparks created a +4.8 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Los Angeles Sparks got the cleaner diet — 56% rim or corner looks vs 41% for Toronto Tempo.

carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 42% of Los Angeles's, with Los Angeles leaning on the higher-value zone (42% vs 31%).

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 42% of Los Angeles's, with Los Angeles leaning on the higher-value zone (42% vs 31%).
Possession context

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard

Full process edge
Toronto Tempo won by 20.0 pts — SQ edge said LA.
Los Angeles Sparks got the better looks, but Toronto Tempo won the full process battle by 20.0 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightHamby was sharp — 73% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 75% from Rim (6/8) against a 58% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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