This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Connecticut Sun won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 29 points on 11-for-14 (79%), headlined by 3-for-3 from short midrange — 7.8 more than expected overall with 57% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Minnesota Lynx created 6.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Connecticut Sun outperformed expected value by 5.6 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Minnesota Lynx created a +3.5 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun got the cleaner diet — 50% rim or corner looks vs 38% for Minnesota Lynx.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 24% of Minnesota's, with Connecticut leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 24% of Minnesota's, with Connecticut leaning on the higher-value zone (39% vs 24%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 4.0 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams lived in the midrange — 43% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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