TSRBeta
Friday, August 28, 2026 · Final

This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

73—93
Toronto Tempo
TOR
Tempo
LV
Aces
Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.

A'ja Wilson

led the way with 27 points on 10-for-17 (59%), headlined by 3-for-4 in the paint — 4.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Las Vegas Aces created 6.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Las Vegas Aces held up better (0.4 pts below expected).
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +6.0 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-6.6↓ Below avg
+6.6↓ Below avg
Shot making
-3.8↓ Below avg
-0.4↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.00
0.99

Shot diet

Las Vegas Aces (27% good looks) and Toronto Tempo (24% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

A'ja Wilson

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 3/5 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
TOR
19%8/13 · 62% FG
LV
16%6/12 · 50% FG
3/4 2/2
Paint
TOR
15%3/10 · 30% FG
LV
16%7/12 · 58% FG
1/2 3/4
Corner 3
TOR
4%2/3 · 67% FG
LV
11%4/8 · 50% FG
1/1 2/2
Short mid
TOR
18%3/12 · 25% FG
LV
13%5/10 · 50% FG
0/3 3/5
Long mid
TOR
7%3/5 · 60% FG
LV
11%4/8 · 50% FG
1/3 2/4
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Toronto's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Las Vegas's; Toronto tilted here more (37% vs 33%).

TOR
37%8/25 · 32% FG
LV
33%6/25 · 24% FG
2/4 1/2

Possession context

LV ran more early offense in this game.

Las Vegas Aces got 33% of FGA in transition (1.00 expected pts/att) vs 18% for Toronto Tempo (0.99 expected pts/att).

TORLV
Transition share18%33%
Second-chance share12%13%
After-steal share4%5%
Half-court expected pts/att0.981.03
Transition expected pts/att0.991.00

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 38.1 pts

Las Vegas Aces won the turnover battle by 10 (17 total TO).

Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.

TORLVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots67.874.4LV
Finishing vs expected-3.8-0.4LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts919LV
Turnovers177LV
Offensive rebounds810LV

Process value (pts)

Process total63.4101.5LV
↳ Looks + finishing64.074.0-10.0
↳ Free throws9.019.0-10.0
↳ Turnover cost-18.0-2.0-16.0
↳ Second chance8.410.5-2.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
10/17
FG%
59%
Pts
27
Vs expected
+4.9
C&S
1/4
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightWilson created in difficult areas and delivered — 75% from Paint (3/4) well above the 41% baseline for that zone.

Short midrangeShort midrange
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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