This game · 123 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 36 points on 12-for-24 (50%), headlined by 8-for-19 from above the break — 6.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Atlanta Dream created 20.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Atlanta Dream outperformed expected value by 4.7 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +7.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun lived in the midrange (31%) while Atlanta Dream was at 12% — a cleaner profile for Atlanta Dream.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Connecticut's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 46% of Atlanta's; Atlanta tilted here more (46% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 25% of Connecticut's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 46% of Atlanta's; Atlanta tilted here more (46% vs 25%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 30.3 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightHoward's strongest zone was Above — 42% from Above (8/19) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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