This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 13 points on 5-for-6 (83%), headlined by 4-for-4 in the interior — 4.5 more than expected overall with 67% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Washington Mystics created 16.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Chicago Sky outperformed expected value by 2.9 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Washington Mystics created a +11.2 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 52% rim or corner looks vs 28% for Chicago Sky.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 40% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (40% vs 20%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 20% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 40% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (40% vs 20%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 40.6 pts
Washington Mystics won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightAustin's strongest zone was Above — 100% from Above (1/1) vs. a 30% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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