TSRBeta
Monday, June 8, 2026 · Final

This game · 144 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

91—101
Seattle Storm
SEA
Storm
LV
Aces
Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.

NaLyssa Smith

led the way with 16 points on 6-for-6 (100%), headlined by 6-for-6 in the paint — 6.9 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Seattle Storm created 1.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 13.8 points on finishing.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Seattle Storm built a +5.9 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+1.8↓ Below avg
-1.8↓ Below avg
Shot making
+10.1↑ Above avg
+13.8↑ Above avg
Expected pts per shot
0.92
0.95

Shot diet

Las Vegas Aces (11% good looks) and Seattle Storm (8% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Dominique Malonga

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 3/4 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
SEA
3%0/2 · 0% FG
LV
1%1/1 · 100% FG
0/1 1/1
PaintKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of Seattle's attempts came from the paint vs 29% of Las Vegas's; Seattle tilted here more (38% vs 29%).

SEA
38%14/28 · 50% FG
LV
29%15/20 · 75% FG
2/2 6/6
Corner 3
SEA
5%2/4 · 50% FG
LV
10%4/7 · 57% FG
1/1 2/2
Short mid
SEA
12%4/9 · 44% FG
LV
14%3/10 · 30% FG
3/4 1/3
Long mid
SEA
11%3/8 · 38% FG
LV
14%6/10 · 60% FG
1/3 2/4
Above break
SEA
31%10/23 · 43% FG
LV
31%6/22 · 27% FG
4/6 4/9

Possession context

SEALV
Transition share20%27%
Second-chance share12%13%
After-steal share8%3%
Half-court expected pts/att0.950.96
Transition expected pts/att0.870.89

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 6.2 pts — SQ edge said SEA.

Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 6.2 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

SEALVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots67.966.2SEA
Finishing vs expected+10.1+13.8LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1321LV
Turnovers913SEA
Offensive rebounds611LV

Process value (pts)

Process total87.393.5LV
↳ Looks + finishing78.080.0-2.0
↳ Free throws13.021.0-8.0
↳ Turnover cost-10.0-19.0+9.0
↳ Second chance6.311.5-5.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
10/19
FG%
53%
Pts
34
Vs expected
+5.7
C&S
5/8
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightWilson's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (2/2) vs. a 44% expectation.

Paint (non-rim)
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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