TSRBeta
Friday, May 15, 2026 · Final

This game · 130 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

83—91
Chicago Sky
CHI
Sky
PHX
Mercury
Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix Mercury won on finishing, not shot quality.

Jovana Nogic

led the way with 27 points on 6-for-11 (55%), headlined by 4-for-7 from above the break — 6.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Chicago Sky created 4.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Chicago Sky outperformed expected value by 1.8 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q3 swung the look battle — Chicago Sky built a +3.4 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+4.9↓ Below avg
-4.9↓ Below avg
Shot making
+1.8↓ Below avg
-3.3↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
0.91↓ Below avg
0.92

Shot diet

Phoenix Mercury (10% good looks) and Chicago Sky (18% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Rickea Jackson

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
CHI
10%4/7 · 57% FG
PHX
6%3/4 · 75% FG
1/2 2/2
Paint
CHI
34%11/23 · 48% FG
PHX
34%11/21 · 52% FG
2/2 4/5
Corner 3
CHI
7%4/5 · 80% FG
PHX
3%1/2 · 50% FG
4/4 0/1
Short midKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 9% of Chicago's attempts came from short midrange vs 21% of Phoenix's; Phoenix settled here more often (21% vs 9%).

CHI
9%4/6 · 67% FG
PHX
21%4/13 · 31% FG
2/3 0/4
Long mid
CHI
15%4/10 · 40% FG
PHX
5%0/3 · 0% FG
2/4 0/1
Above break
CHI
25%2/17 · 12% FG
PHX
31%5/19 · 26% FG
1/2 4/7

Possession context

CHIPHX
Transition share24%24%
Second-chance share10%18%
After-steal share1%2%
Half-court expected pts/att0.910.91
Transition expected pts/att0.920.95

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Phoenix Mercury won by 8.2 pts — SQ edge said CHI.

Chicago Sky got the better looks, but Phoenix Mercury won the full process battle by 8.2 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

CHIPHXEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots62.257.3CHI
Finishing vs expected+1.8-3.3CHI

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1937PHX
Turnovers1315CHI
Offensive rebounds610PHX

Process value (pts)

Process total74.382.5PHX
↳ Looks + finishing64.054.0+10.0
↳ Free throws19.037.0-18.0
↳ Turnover cost-15.0-19.0+4.0
↳ Second chance6.310.5-4.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
3/16
FG%
19%
Pts
17
Vs expected
-7.3
C&S
1/5
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightCopper struggled most from S.Mid — 0/3 against a 39% baseline.

Paint (non-rim)
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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