This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won — the process matched the result.
led the way with 12 points on 4-for-7 (57%), headlined by 3-for-5 from above the break — 5.0 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Shakira Austin close behind (+4.3 on 27 points).
- Washington Mystics created 0.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 8.3 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Dallas Wings created a +6.1 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 49% rim or corner looks vs 37% for Dallas Wings.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of Washington's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 2.0 pts
Washington Mystics won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightAustin's strongest zone was Paint — 60% from Paint (3/5) vs. a 38% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →