This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 20 points on 6-for-14 (43%), headlined by 5-for-8 from above the break — 5.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Dallas Wings created 7.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 9.1 points on makes and misses.
- Bridget Carleton carried the finishing gap — +5.2 vs expected on 20 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings attacked the rim more — 19% of attempts in the restricted area vs 9% for Portland Fire.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 9% of Portland's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (19% vs 9%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 9% of Portland's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (19% vs 9%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Dallas Wings won by 15.3 pts
Dallas Wings won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarleton's strongest zone was Above — 63% from Above (5/8) vs. a 32% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →