This game · 145 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 16 points on 7-for-12 (58%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 3.9 more than expected overall (42% from the rim or corner), with Dorka Juhasz close behind (+3.0 on 12 points).
- Minnesota Lynx created 22.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 5.0 points on finishing.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +15.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (22%) while Toronto Tempo was at 11% — a cleaner profile for Toronto Tempo.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/7 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Minnesota's attempts came from long midrange vs 6% of Toronto's; Minnesota settled here more often (19% vs 6%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Minnesota's attempts came from long midrange vs 6% of Toronto's; Minnesota settled here more often (19% vs 6%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 61.4 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 14 (24 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJuskaite was sharp — 50% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 67% from Above (2/3) against a 36% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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