This game · 129 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 13 points on 5-for-7 (71%), headlined by 2-for-2 in the paint — 2.5 more than expected overall with 57% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Georgia Amoore close behind (+2.3 on 7 points, 2-for-3 on tough looks).
- Washington Mystics created 5.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Washington Mystics held up better (0.2 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Seattle Storm created a +6.1 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm (11% good looks) and Washington Mystics (20% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of Washington's attempts came from the paint vs 29% of Seattle's; Washington tilted here more (36% vs 29%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of Washington's attempts came from the paint vs 29% of Seattle's; Washington tilted here more (36% vs 29%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 22.0 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJohnson's strongest zone was Rim — 67% from Rim (2/3) vs. a 56% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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