This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Toronto Tempo won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 38 points on 11-for-20 (55%), headlined by 3-for-6 from above the break — 5.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Connecticut Sun created 1.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Connecticut Sun outperformed expected value by 4.9 points on makes and misses.
- Aaliyah Edwards carried the finishing gap — +8.5 vs expected on 24 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo attacked the rim more — 35% of attempts in the restricted area vs 22% for Connecticut Sun.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 35% of Toronto's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (35% vs 22%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Connecticut's attempts came from the rim vs 35% of Toronto's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (35% vs 22%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Toronto Tempo won by 7.7 pts — SQ edge said CONN.
Connecticut Sun got the better looks, but Toronto Tempo won the full process battle by 7.7 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 67% from Cor 3 (2/3) vs. a 44% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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